Disorderly Greek Default and Exit from Eurozone?
London, UK - 4th November 2011, 7:55 GMT
Dear ATCA Open & Philanthropia Friends
[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]
1. The possibility of a disorderly Greek default is now rising;
2. It is worth watching the Greek military which was on the verge of causing a coup earlier in the week;
3. Until the defence chiefs of different branches were hastily dismissed and a referendum on the IMF-led bailout and euro membership was announced;
Violence in Athens over austerity measures
4. Under pressure from Germany and France, plans for a referendum have now been cancelled in favour of an unavoidable snap election;
5. The Greek government is on the verge of collapse as the process of disintegration at the centre accelerates;
6. The incumbent prime minister is likely to resign having lost the confidence to govern outright;
7. A new coalition care-taker government may come into play in the interim;
8. There are likely to be serious costs for the Greek economy, more than many of the population realise at present;
9. The political and economic uncertainty will cause further capital flight not only from Greek financial institutions but also other Eurozone members as well;
10. Eventually, Greece may end up defaulting and exiting from the euro in the not too distant future;
11. Consequences for Italy and Spain in terms of the cost of issuing and servicing debt at rising rates may not be benign as they are pushed to the brink;
12. This may cause the Eurozone to dive into a tailspin and European banks to wobble; whilst
13. Eroding the already fragile confidence in the global financial markets and propelling the world’s major economies towards a negative growth trajectory.
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